Libya and Regional Challenges: Analyses and Comparisons in a Demographic Context

Abstract

The study, titled "Libya and Regional Challenges: Analyses and Comparisons in a Demographic Context," aimed to analyze Libya's demographic position compared to its neighboring countries, project future population trends, and examine irregular migration and its effects. The results showed that Egypt represents the largest population bloc neighboring Libya in both 2020 and 2050, while Libya's population increased from 1.1 million in 1950 to 6.9 million in 2020 and is projected to reach 10.3 million by 2050. This contrasts with the combined population of neighboring countries, which is approximately 415.4 million—nearly 40 times that of Libya. The study also revealed a decline in fertility rates across all countries, with Libya experiencing the most significant decrease, from 8.1 to 3 children per woman between 1970 and 2020, while Niger recorded the smallest decline. The study revealed that Libya and Sudan recorded the highest unemployment rates in 2023, while rates appeared low in Niger and Chad due to the nature of their agrarian, non-industrial economies. It also showed that Libya received approximately 697,000 irregular migrants in 2022, with migrants from Niger (30.5%) and Egypt (27.2%) being the largest groups. Their presence was concentrated in Tripoli and Benghazi, and the route through Niger was the most frequently used (45%). The study concluded that Niger represents the greatest future demographic challenge for Libya, compared to the least significant challenge posed by Tunisia. It recommended developing a national population policy, enhancing border control with modern technologies, activating economic partnerships with neighboring countries to reduce the drivers of migration, and imposing stricter penalties on those involved in migrant smuggling and collaborating with them.