The Comparison between the Simple Linear the Regression and Autoregressive distributed Lag Model in Analyze the Impact of Illiteracy on Poverty in the Republic of Yemen
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Poverty, Illiteracy, Simple linear regression model, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), Measures forecast accuracy, Standard problems
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the impact of illiteracy on poverty in the Republic of Yemen during the time period (1996-2014). Through descriptive analysis and using two methods simple linear regression model and autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), and the two models were compared using measuring forecast accuracy RMSE, MSE, MAPE, the study reached the autoregressive distributed lag model is better than the simple linear regression model in estimating the relationship between the two study variables, in addition to the fact that the (ARDL) model is free of the standard problems represented in the problem of autocorrelation, the problem of instability of variance and the normal distribution.
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