The Impact of Economic Growth on Environmental Degradation in the Libyan Economy: An Econometric Study using the ARDL Model for the Period (1990-2024)
Article Sidebar
-
Economic Growth, Environmental Degradation, Libya, Environmental Kuznets Curve, ARDL Model
Abstract
The research aims to measure the impact of economic growth on environmental degradation in Libya during the period 1990-2024 and to test the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The Autoregressive Distributed Lapse (ARDL) model was used for short- and long-term analysis, with mean centering applied to economic growth variables and its square to address the multicollinearity problem. The empirical results confirmed a strong long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables. The main finding was the rejection of the long-term Ecological Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Libya, indicating a positive linear relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. This suggests that the Libyan economy has not yet reached the ecological tipping point. The rate of adaptation toward equilibrium has been approximately 55.5% annually. The study recommends taking effective policies to adopt green growth strategies and diversify the economy to ensure long-term environmental sustainability.
Full text article
References
[1] S. Kuznets, "Economic growth and income inequality," The American Economic Review, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 1–28, 1955.
[2] G. M. Grossman and A. B. Krueger, "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 3914, Nov. 1991. doi: 10.3386/w3914.
[3] D. I. Stern, "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, vol. 22, no. 8, pp. 1419–1439, 2004.
[4] T. Panayotou, "Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development," ILO World Employment Programme Research, 1993. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:128480472
[5] S. A. Sarkodie and V. Strezov, "Empirical study of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Environmental Sustainability Curve hypothesis for Australia, China, Ghana and USA," Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 201, pp. 98–110, 2018.
[6] S. Dinda, "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 431–455, 2004.
[7] M. Balibey, "Relationships among CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign direct investment and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 1042–1049, 2015.
[8] س. زراري و ح. رايس، "منحنى كوزنتس البيئي: دراسة حالة الإمارات العربية المتحدة باستخدام منهج الانحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزعة (ARDL) خلال الفترة 1984–2017"، مجلة الاستراتيجية والتنمية (الجزائر)، مج. 10، ع. 4، ص. 11–29، 2020.
[9] F. Bibi and M. Jamil, "Testing environment Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in different regions," Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, vol. 28, no. 11, pp. 13581–13594, 2020.
[10] س. بوعافية، ب. رحالي و ر. زهواني، "العلاقة بين النمو الاقتصادي والتدهور البيئي في ظل فرضيات منحنى كوزنتس البيئي: دراسة قياسية لحالة الجزائر خلال الفترة 1980–2017"، مجلة الإصلاحات الاقتصادية والتكامل، مج. 15، ع. 1، ص. 242–254، 2021.
[11] J. Z. Teng, M. K. Khan, M. I. Khan, M. Z. Chishti, and M. O. Khan, "Effect of foreign direct investment on CO2 emission with the role of globalization, institutional quality with pooled mean group panel ARDL," Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, vol. 28, no. 5, pp. 5271–5282, 2021.
[12] س. ذهب و س. أبوقرين، "اختبار فرضية منحنى كوزنتس البيئي بين النمو الاقتصادي والتلوث البيئي: دراسة حالة دول المغرب العربي خلال الفترة 1975–2014"، مجلة دراسات الاقتصاد والأعمال (ليبيا)، مج. 8، ع. 2، ص. 15–32، 2021.
[13] ح. الطائي و ت. أكومحمد، "اختبار تحقق فرضية منحنى كوزنتس البيئي في أربعين دولة ذات أكبر انبعاث لغاز ثاني أكسيد الكربون: دراسة قياسية باستخدام بيانات البانل للفترة 1992–2018"، مجلة البشائر الاقتصادية (الجزائر)، مج. 8، ع. 1، ص. 712–719، 2022.
[14] D. Leonardo, M. Maulana, and J. Hartanto, "Impact of economic growth and FDI on Indonesia environmental degradation: EKC and pollution hypothesis testing," Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, no. 21, pp. 15–30, 2023. doi: 10.22219/jep.v21i01.24294.
[15] س. عطيتو، ن. خشبة و أ. خطاب، "تأثير النمو الاقتصادي على البيئة: اختبار فرضية منحنى كوزنتس البيئي في مصر"، المجلة العلمية للدراسات التجارية والبيئية، مج. 16، ع. 3، ص. 4985–5009، 2025.
[16] E. Soyode and Z. Afolabi, "Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for the United States," Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, vol. 25, no. 11, pp. 378–383, 2025. doi: 10.9734/ajeba/2025/v25i112059.
[17] ي. مسعود و س. ساسي، "اختبار فرضية منحنى 'Kuznets' البيئي: دراسة حالة الاقتصاد الليبي"، مجلة أبعاد اقتصادية (ليبيا)، مج. 10، ع. 1، ص. 83–103، 2020.
[18] C. Özden and E. Beşe, "Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Australia: Evidence from nonlinear ARDL model with a structural break," Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 2245–2254, 2021.
[19] و. البلتاجي و م. الجوهري، "العلاقة السببية بين النمو الاقتصادي وانبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون في جمهورية مصر العربية خلال الفترة (1965–2020)،" المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية، كلية التجارة، جامعة دمياط، مج. 3، ع. 1، ص. 1267–1291، 2022.
[20] C. Sancar, Y. E. Akbaş, S. Suluk, and M. A. Polat, "The impact of financial stability, globalization, and economic stability on ecological footprint from the perspective of EKC hypothesis: New evidence from a Fourier panel data analysis for BRICS T countries," Sustainability, vol. 16, no. 22, 2025.
[21] D. Almeida, L. Carvalho, P. Ferreira, A. Dionísio, and I. U. Haq, "Global Dynamics of Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-Correlation Analysis of Income and CO2 Emissions," Sustainability, vol. 16, no. 20, art. no. 9089, 2024. doi: 10.3390/su16209089.
[22] س. أحمد، ج. جارالنبي و ص. حب الله، "اختبار فرضية منحنى كوزنتس للعلاقة بين النمو الاقتصادي والتلوث البيئي في السودان خلال المدة 2000–2022"، مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية والقانونية، مج. 9، ع. 2، ص. 85–94، 2025.
[23] M. Simionescu, "Revised environmental Kuznets curve in CEE countries. Evidence from panel threshold models for economic sectors," Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 28, pp. 60881–60899, 2021.
[24] ح. الحويج، "اختبار فرضية منحنى كوزنتس البيئي في الاقتصاد الليبي"، مجلة آفاق اقتصادية، مج. 2، ع. 10، ص. 1–12، 2024.
[25] M. A. Cole, "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: Examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 71–81, 2004.
[26] F. Halicioglu, "Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member," Ecological Economics, vol. 68, no. 6, pp. 1667–1675, 2009.
[27] F. K. Bilgili, "The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions: A revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 54, pp. 838–845, 2016.
[28] E. Dogan and B. S. Seker, "The influence of real output, renewable and non renewable energy, trade and financial development on carbon emissions in the top renewable energy countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 60, pp. 1074–1085, 2016.
[29] H. M. Ertugrul, "The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries," Ecological Indicators, vol. 67, pp. 543–555, 2016.
[30] T.-H. C. Le, "Trade openness and environmental quality: International evidence," Energy Policy, vol. 92, pp. 45–55, 2016.
[31] G. E. Halkos, "The channels of the effect of government expenditure on the environment: Evidence using dynamic panel data," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 135–157, 2017.
[32] H. Pesaran and Y. Shin, "An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to co integration analysis," in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, ch. 31. doi: 10.1017/CCOL0521633230.011.
[33] World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2025. Available: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
[34] M. H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, pp. 289–326, 2001.
Authors
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Pure & Applied Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
In a brief statement, the rights relate to the publication and distribution of research published in the journal of the University of Sebha where authors who have published their articles in the journal of the university of Sebha should how they can use or distribute their articles. They reserve all their rights to the published works, such as (but not limited to) the following rights:
- Copyright and other property rights related to the article, such as patent rights.
- Research published in the journal of the University of Sebha and used in its future works, including lectures and books, the right to reproduce articles for their own purposes, and the right to self-archive their articles.
- The right to enter a separate article, or for a non-exclusive distribution of their article with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in the journal of Sebha University.
Privacy Statement The names and e-mail addresses entered on the Sabha University Journal site will be used for the aforementioned purposes only and for which they were used.