Time Series Prediction Using Box-Jenkins Models
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Time Series, ARIMA MODEL, Box-Jenkins Methodology, Tessawa production
Abstract
This study aimed to develop a standard model for predicting the production of improved seeds for Tessawa production project using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select the appropriate model. Results indicated that the appropriate model for representing the hard wheat series is ARIMA(0.1.3) and ARIMA(0.1.1) for soft wheat and ARIMA(0.2.2) for barley series. After choosing the best model, production was predicted until 2026, which constitutes a sound scientific basis for the development of future plans for the project to help decision-makers make the right decisions.
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References
1-M.B.Priestly 1981. Spectral Analysis and Time Series.
2-Akaike , H. (1969):Fitting autoregressive models for prediction.Annals of theinstitute of Statistical Mathematics,21:243-247.
3-الوقائع العراقية (2016)قانون الموازنة العامة الاتجادية لجمهورية العراق للسنة المالية 2016م العدد4394
4-سالم,محمد حمدي واخرون (2008)دراسة اقتصادية لأنتاج وتصنيع الطماطم في مصر,المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي ,المجلد18 العدد(3)ص 841 صص856
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