The Effect of Temperature on Sepia officinalis in the Mediterranean Sea and the Libyan Coastal Strip Using the RCP4.5 Climate Scenario
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Climate Change, Mediterranean Sea, Sepia Officinalis, Temperature, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5)
Abstract
A heterogeneous pattern of changes in the distribution, growth, survival, and abundance of many aquatic ecosystems has been brought about by climate change. The Mediterranean Sea, recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions, is anticipated to become warmer and drier, with an increase in interannual variability. The goal of this research is to analyse how anticipated climate change affects the cephalopod Sepia officinalis. The RCP4.5 warming scenario dataset was utilised to evaluate the ecological productivity of this species over the period 2006–2085. Upon analysing the data, it became clear that populations of S. officinalis are increasing in the central Mediterranean opposite Libya, while decreasing in other parts of the basin. From 2006 to 2023, the population was relatively large, reaching approximately 1.5 × 10⁸, as temperatures during this period were more stable, ranging from about 10–23°C. In contrast, during the period 2024–2085, temperatures increased significantly to around 12–24°C, which correlated with a notable decrease in population size, dropping to approximately 3.2 × 10⁷.5. A strong inverse relationship was found between temperature and S. officinalis abundance in both the eastern and western Mediterranean, with Pearson correlation coefficients of -0.911 and -0.822, respectively. These findings highlight the significant impact of rising temperatures on the abundance of S. officinalis. To safeguard these valuable marine resources, it is essential to implement effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the effects of climate change on fisheries.
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