Forecasting for cereal crops import demand to Libya
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cereal crops , Libya , forecasting , Imports , Non causal models.
Abstract
Cereal crops are of great importance compared to other crops. Because, it is The main component of the food pattern of most of the people all over the world, and it is one of the important sources of energy and protein for humans and Animals. This study aims to estimating the size of food grains gap during the study period (1990 – 2016),identify the current status of most cereal crops imports and forecasting the import demand for cereal crops to Libya during (2017 – 2025). Using non-causal prediction models that include specific and probabilistic models using data from FAO. These results indicate that the average volume of grains imports reached 2545000 tons during the same period. The expenditure on cereal crops imports, including (wheat , barley , rice , corn) ranked (0.40 - 0.14 - 0.12 - 0.24) of the average total expenditure during the study period. The results of demand prediction on the total cereal crops imports during the period (2017– 2025) ranging from 3367000 tons in 2017 to 4463000 tons in 2025. The study concluded a set of policies to reduce cereal crops import to Libya and reviewing agriculture plans and programs to help decision-makers to have good import policies.
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